Gut Plus Evidence Decision Rule
Use intuition to form a decision, then test it against data and insight
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 95%
The Gut Plus Evidence Decision Rule preserves founder intuition while adding the discipline needed to scale. Start by stating the decision your gut favors and the assumptions embedded in that reaction. Then gather relevant operating data and insight from experienced leaders, especially people whose strengths balance the founder's weaknesses. Compare the evidence with the initial instinct instead of using metrics selectively to justify it. Proceed, revise, or reject the decision explicitly, then review the result so future intuition becomes better calibrated. Nathan describes this as an evolution from winging decisions toward using data and insights wherever possible. The aim is not perfect certainty; it is to improve the founder's percentage of sound decisions as consequences and organizational complexity increase.
Origin
Nathan says Foundr's experienced leaders taught him to combine the gut instinct he used as a creator with the data and insights required of a scaling operator.
Core principles
- 01Intuition remains useful but fallible
- 02Scaling requires more than founder instinct
- 03Data should inform rather than automatically dictate
- 04Experienced teammates can expose blind spots
How to run it
- 1
Declare the instinct
Write the decision your gut favors before examining supporting evidence.
Pro tip Separate the proposed action from the feeling behind it.
Watch out An unstated instinct can quietly bias every later step.
- 2
Expose assumptions
List what must be true for the instinctive choice to work.
Pro tip Include assumptions about customers, timing, cost, and capacity.
- 3
Gather evidence
Collect the smallest useful set of data and ask experienced team members for contrary insight.
Pro tip Invite the analytical counterpart your own style lacks.
Watch out More data does not always mean more clarity.
- 4
Reconcile the signals
Identify where the evidence supports, weakens, or contradicts the gut decision.
Pro tip Name what would change your mind before debating the result.
Watch out Do not cherry-pick metrics that protect the original idea.
- 5
Decide and review
Proceed, modify, or reject the choice, then later compare the actual outcome with both intuition and evidence.
Pro tip Keep a short decision log to calibrate future judgment.
In the wild
An ideas-led founder wants to launch a new offer immediately. Before committing, an analytical teammate checks demand signals, delivery capacity, and expected economics. The team keeps the core idea but narrows the launch to the segment with evidence of need.
→ Intuition supplies direction while data reduces avoidable execution risk.
Common mistakes
Winging every decision
Pure intuition becomes increasingly dangerous as the company and consequences grow.
Treating data as certainty
Metrics are inputs to judgment and may be incomplete, delayed, or poorly framed.
Is it for you?
Best for
Founders moving from early creation into repeatable operation and scale.
Not ideal for
Trivial reversible choices where analysis would cost more than a mistake.
From the transcript
“i think it's a combination”
“now i like to use data and insights to back it up as well where i can”
From the episode
Nathan Chan: The Founders Blueprint
Nathan Chan