The Premortem If-Then Plan
Rehearse the obstacles before they hit, and you're three times more likely to reach the goal.
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 86%
The Premortem If-Then Plan is Zahrai's second antidote for the Treading-Water pit. A premortem (also called inversion) has you proactively imagine everything that could go wrong and troubleshoot it before it happens. For each obstacle you write an implementation intention — an 'if-then' coping plan — such as 'if I lose motivation, then I'll remind myself of my purpose and reach out to my mentor.' Gollwitzer's research shows this simple pre-commitment makes you about three times more likely to achieve the goal, because your response is decided before the moment of weakness arrives.
Origin
Borrowing the premortem from project management and Gollwitzer's implementation-intention research from psychology, Zahrai combined them to solve the pattern she saw in Treading-Water clients who quit whenever motivation dipped or an obstacle surfaced.
Core principles
- 01Inverting a plan surfaces the obstacles that would otherwise derail you.
- 02Pre-deciding your response to each obstacle is a coping plan, not just optimism.
- 03An 'if-then' implementation intention roughly triples your odds of achieving a goal.
- 04Motivation dips are predictable, so plan the recovery move in advance.
How to run it
- 1
Run the premortem
Before starting, deliberately imagine the goal has failed and list every obstacle and thing that could have gone wrong along the way.
Pro tip This is also called inversion — think backwards from failure to find the risks.
- 2
Write an if-then for each obstacle
Convert every anticipated obstacle into an implementation intention: 'If [obstacle happens], then I will [specific response].'
Pro tip Make the 'then' a concrete, resourced action, not a vague intention.
- 3
Plan for the motivation dip specifically
Because the initial dopamine always fades, pre-decide what you'll do when motivation drops — e.g. reconnect to your purpose and contact a mentor.
Watch out Without this, a normal motivation dip gets misread as 'this isn't for me' and you abandon the goal.
- 4
Execute the plan when triggered
When a real obstacle appears, run the pre-written response instead of improvising in a low-willpower moment.
Pro tip The pre-commitment is what delivers the roughly 3x boost in goal achievement.
In the wild
Zahrai offers a template: 'If I start to lose motivation, then I will remind myself of my purpose and then reach out to my mentor.'
→ A pre-decided coping response replaces the impulse to quit and switch to something new.
A talented client had abandoned an MBA and was quitting his PhD; rather than lacking commitment, he was doing the wrong things, and refocusing on high-level meaning let him commit fully to a youth charity.
→ Five years later he remained deeply fulfilled, showing that focus plus obstacle-planning beats serial starting.
Common mistakes
Mistaking a normal dopamine dip for a wrong path
The initial excitement of anything new always fades; reading that predictable dip as a sign to quit is what keeps people cycling through unfinished commitments.
Planning only for success
Skipping the premortem leaves you defenceless when an obstacle arrives, and you crumble in the moment rather than executing a prepared response.
Is it for you?
Best for
Serial starters who quit at the first difficulty and want to see commitments through.
Not ideal for
Trivial tasks where obstacle-planning is overkill.
From the transcript
“A premortem is a concept in the project management world. It's also called inversion... You proactively think about all the things that could go wrong.”
“If you develop an implementation intention you're going to be three times more likely to achieve your goal simply by having your if then plan.”
From the episode
Shadé Zahrai: Confidence for High Performers, How to Unlock the Best Version of You
Shadé Zahrai