The Six Signs of Predicting Behavior
Six observable signals that tell you what someone will do next.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 90%
Once trust is defined as prediction, Dreeke needs an observable scoring system. His six signs — investing, longevity, reliability, actions, emotional stability and language — are what he listens and watches for across words, deeds and actions. Actions carry the most weight, because a person who has done something the same way three or four times will almost certainly do it the same way the fifth and sixth. Language is the fastest read: are they using the four pillars on you, or centring themselves? Layering non-verbal congruence over the six gives a high-confidence read on whether this is someone you can predict.
Origin
Developed inside the FBI's behavioral analysis program for counterintelligence, where Dreeke strategised dialogues, recruitment operations and double-agent operations — contexts in which mispredicting a person's behaviour has national-security consequences.
Core principles
- 01Listen to words and deeds, watch actions — then score against the six signs.
- 02None of the signs are right or wrong, good or bad. They are milestones and markers.
- 03Actions are the greatest predictor because repeated behaviour is self-reinforcing.
- 04Language is the fastest read available.
- 05Non-verbal congruence is the confirming layer on top of all six.
How to run it
- 1
Suspend ego and observe
Let go of yourself and put wholesale focus on the other human. You cannot run the six signs while narrating your own story.
- 2
Check investing
Do this person's words, actions and deeds demonstrate they see your successes as tied together? If they do, you can trust they'll take actions good for you as well as themselves.
- 3
Check longevity
Do they treat the relationship as transactional and short-term, or long-term? Neither is wrong — it's a marker that tells you what to expect.
- 4
Check reliability and actions
Reliability is competence and diligence combined. Actions are the greatest predictor — watch what they've actually done, repeatedly, rather than what they say they'll do.
Pro tip If you watch someone do something the same way three or four times, the likelihood of five and six is pretty stinking high.
Watch out Absent a different stimulus or a new priority entering their life, hoping for different behaviour is silly.
- 5
Check emotional stability
Assess steadiness. Volatility makes behaviour unpredictable regardless of how the other signs score.
- 6
Read their language, then confirm with non-verbals
The fastest read is whether they use the four pillars on you — seeking your thoughts, speaking to your priorities, validating you, giving you choice. Combine with comfortable, congruent non-verbal displays for a strong signal.
Pro tip Language plus non-verbal congruence is Dreeke's quickest high-confidence read that someone is trustworthy.
In the wild
Dreeke rejects the common hope that someone will behave differently next time. He points out that people repeat actions because they believe those actions serve their best interest.
→ Behaviour becomes highly predictable, and the observer stops being surprised by outcomes they could have forecast.
Common mistakes
Moralising the signs
Dreeke is explicit that there's no right or wrong or good or bad here — the signs are markers. Scoring them as virtues turns assessment into judgment and blinds you.
Weighting words over actions
Actions are the greatest predictor. People hoping a track record will reverse itself are ignoring the strongest signal they have.
Is it for you?
Best for
Anyone assessing a new colleague, partner, hire or counterparty before committing.
Not ideal for
One-off interactions with no observation window, or relationships where you're unwilling to suspend ego enough to watch.
From the transcript
“i have this my six signs of predicting behavior which i can kind of take a look at and i listen to your words deeds…”
“you have actions and actions to me is the greatest predictor because people a lot of times will hope that someone will do something different…”
“if i watch you do something the same way three or four times the likelihood of you doing the same way five and six times…”
From the episode
Robin Dreeke: FBI Hacks for Building Rapport
Robin Dreeke