Small Seeds Decision Portfolio
Test several uncertain paths cheaply, then back the one that grows.
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 99%
The Small Seeds Decision Portfolio handles choices where reflection alone cannot reveal what the options will feel like in practice. Instead of dropping everything for one untested direction, define several plausible paths and create a small, authentic trial of each. Allocate roughly comparable initial attention so one seed does not win simply because it received all the water. Observe practical signals: sustained enjoyment, rate of learning, demand from others, ease of returning to the work, and visible progress. The goal is not to preserve every option indefinitely. It is to generate enough firsthand data that one seed begins to grow faster or more attractively than the others. At that point, shift time and commitment toward the stronger signal while allowing weak options to close cleanly.
Origin
After leaving his company, Bahcall simultaneously explored advising, investing, and writing. Within months, writing produced the strongest personal signal, so he concentrated on it.
Core principles
- 01Uncertain choices need evidence, not premature commitment.
- 02Several small bets reveal more than one large speculative bet.
- 03Comparable effort makes the strongest signal easier to see.
- 04Experience creates the data required for a better decision.
How to run it
- 1
Name the options
Turn a vague crossroads into two or more concrete paths. Exclude choices you would not genuinely pursue.
Pro tip Write what evidence would make each option more attractive.
Watch out Do not add options merely to avoid choosing.
- 2
Plant cheap tests
Create a small real version of each path, such as a short project, advisory engagement, class, or customer test. Keep reversibility high.
Pro tip Choose tests that expose the daily work, not just the glamorous outcome.
Watch out Research about an option is weaker than actually doing a small piece of it.
- 3
Water comparably
Give each seed enough initial effort to produce a fair signal. Avoid flooding a favorite while starving its alternatives.
Pro tip Pre-commit a small time box for every test.
Watch out Equal initial attention does not mean permanent equal funding.
- 4
Read the growth
Compare progress, curiosity, enjoyment, and external traction after the test period. Look for a signal that persists beyond one good day.
Pro tip Use a short weekly log to prevent hindsight bias.
Watch out Do not confuse novelty with durable fit.
- 5
Concentrate
Move more effort to the seed with the strongest combined evidence. Pause or end the weaker trials rather than maintaining a permanent collection of side projects.
Pro tip State what new evidence would reverse the decision.
Watch out Testing is a route to commitment, not an excuse to avoid it.
In the wild
Bahcall spoke with companies about advising, explored investing conversations, and spent time writing. He did not immediately repeat his previous operating career. The writing seed became more enjoyable and visibly stronger within months, giving him evidence to pursue authorship.
→ A bounded portfolio of trials produced a confident direction without an unsupported all-in bet.
Common mistakes
Flooding the preferred seed
Giving one option nearly all the resources manufactures the conclusion instead of testing it.
Running abstract tests
Reading and imagining do not expose the lived work as clearly as a small real project.
Is it for you?
Best for
People choosing among several careers, projects, markets, or creative directions without enough firsthand data.
Not ideal for
Situations where delay is dangerous or only one legally or ethically acceptable path exists.
From the transcript
“what you want to do is plant a bunch of small seeds spread your bets make a bunch of little bets”
“little seeds water them all equally and it will become clear to you over time and probably quite quickly which one works for you”
“you just don't have any data points you don't know what it's going to be like until you try it”
From the episode
Safi Bahcall: Shoot Your Loonshot
Safi Bahcall