The Big Offer (Extreme Anchoring)
Open somewhere absurd, dial back slowly, and land where you wanted while looking like the reasonable one.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 90%
Adams calls this the big offer and says any negotiator will recognize it. Walk in and say you won't sell for less than a million; the other side, who planned to offer 100,000, now has a million anchored in their head and biases toward the middle — perhaps 500,000. But you'd have been happy with 400,000. He reads Trump's immigration position this way: start with a giant, expensive wall along every inch of the border, then as impracticality arguments accumulate, it becomes a barrier, similar to what's been used before, only in important places, spread out over time. He explicitly notes the same technique running from the opposite direction — AOC's Green New Deal opening with getting rid of airplanes, which he assumes she doesn't expect to win, in order to make half of it imaginable.
Origin
Adams identifies this as standard sales technique that anyone who negotiates already knows, but argues the notable thing is aggression of application. He credits Trump with using it more aggressively than others have and to good effect, and points to AOC as running an identically-structured play on climate — 'she's basically Trump on the other side' if you look at technique rather than policy.
Core principles
- 01The first number in the room biases everyone toward the middle around it.
- 02Ask for a lot, settle for a little less — standard sales technique, rarely run aggressively enough.
- 03The extreme anchor must be argued for sincerely, or it reads as a bluff.
- 04Dialling back reframes you as the compromiser without moving your real target.
- 05Getting half of an outrageous ask can exceed the whole of a reasonable one.
How to run it
- 1
Set your private target
Decide the outcome you'd genuinely accept before you open. In Adams' example the seller would have been happy with 400,000 — that number never leaves their head.
- 2
Open far above it
State an extreme opening: a million dollars, a wall along every inch of the border, no fuel in any airplane. The extremity is what shifts the midpoint.
Pro tip Adams notes the counterparty's planned 100,000 offer simply evaporates once a million is in the room.
- 3
Argue the extreme sincerely
Adams observes that AOC 'argues as if you really can' change everything. The anchor only holds while you appear to mean it.
Watch out A transparently insincere anchor gets dismissed rather than negotiated against.
- 4
Dial back in visible stages
Concede along multiple axes as objections arrive — scope, materials, coverage, timeline. Wall becomes barrier, becomes barrier in important places, becomes spread out over time.
Pro tip Each concession buys the appearance of reasonableness while your real target stays untouched.
- 5
Close near your real number
Land at or above your private target and accept readily. The counterparty feels they extracted a compromise; you got what you set out for.
Pro tip Adams: 'I'll take it because I did okay.'
In the wild
A seller opens by refusing to sell for less than $1 million. The buyer had planned to offer 100,000, but with a million anchored, they bias toward the middle and propose 500,000. The seller would have been happy with 400,000.
→ The seller takes 500,000 — 100,000 above their real target and five times the buyer's original intent.
Where weak persuaders said 'we should greatly reduce our use of fossil fuels, climate change is coming, and it's pretty important', AOC opened with getting rid of airplanes and changing everything. People said it was impossible. She argued as if it weren't.
→ Adams' read: people go from 'I can't imagine doing that' to 'I can imagine doing half of that' — and half may be the most anyone could have gotten.
Common mistakes
Opening at your real target
If you open where you want to land, every concession moves you below it. The anchor must sit well above the outcome you need.
Anchoring without conviction
Adams notes AOC argues the extreme as if it's achievable. An anchor you visibly don't believe gets ignored rather than split.
Being too timid with the anchor
Adams' observation is that the technique is standard but that Trump and AOC use it 'more aggressively than other people have' — and that aggression is where the effect comes from.
Is it for you?
Best for
Negotiators, salespeople, and advocates pushing for policy or budget movement.
Not ideal for
Long-term relationships where a transparently absurd opening burns trust for future rounds.
From the transcript
“That's the big offer. So, anybody who negotiates is familiar with this technique.”
“I was only planning to offer 100,000, but now that that million dollars is in my mind, I'm already biased towards something in between. Maybe…”
“Asking for a lot and settling for a little less is standard sales technique. We see the president using it more aggressively than other people…”
From the episode
Scott Adams: The Persuasion Playbook
Scott Adams