The Uncertainty Tax (Lower the Barrier to Trial)
People don't just dislike uncertainty — they devalue it and freeze.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 3
- Confidence
- 90%
Berger argues that what stops people is often not missing information but uncertainty — the inability to know whether something will be good. People don't merely dislike uncertainty, they devalue whatever is uncertain, and in the face of it they hit the pause button, which favors the status quo. The fix is to remove uncertainty by lowering the barrier to trial: free samples, test drives, freemium, and money-back guarantees all let people experience the value before committing.
Origin
Berger describes dreading a delayed flight to an event; when it was finally cancelled he was oddly relieved because he could now act. A study showed people would pay less for a gift card that might be $50 or $100 than for a guaranteed $50 card — proof that uncertainty is devalued below its worst case.
Core principles
- 01Uncertainty is often worse than a known bad outcome.
- 02People don't just dislike uncertainty; they devalue whatever is uncertain.
- 03Faced with uncertainty, people hit pause and do nothing — favoring the status quo.
- 04Letting people experience value first removes the uncertainty tax.
How to run it
- 1
Locate the uncertainty
Identify the doubt — will this be good? — that's freezing the person on the pause button.
- 2
Let them experience the value
Offer a low-cost, low-commitment way to try it: sample, test drive, freemium, or guarantee.
Pro tip Freemium isn't just a business model; it lets people experience value before paying.
- 3
Lower the barrier to trial
Make trying as cheap and easy as possible so the person experiences value and pays to learn more.
Pro tip Money-back guarantees, pilots, and free samples all reduce perceived risk.
In the wild
One group was asked what they'd pay for a $100 card, another for a $50 card, and a third for a card that would be $50 or $100 but they wouldn't know which.
→ The uncertain group valued the card below even the $50 card, showing uncertainty is devalued below its worst case.
Berger worried endlessly about a delayed flight; when it was finally cancelled he felt better because he could now rebook, set up a Zoom, or solve it another way.
→ The uncertainty was worse than the confirmed worst outcome — once known, he could act.
Common mistakes
Treating hesitation as an information gap
Adding more facts doesn't help when the real blocker is uncertainty about whether the thing will be good.
Asking for full commitment upfront
Without a way to experience value, the upfront switching cost plus uncertainty keeps people on pause.
Is it for you?
Best for
New products, services, or offers competing against an established default.
Not ideal for
Offers whose value can't be sampled or demonstrated cheaply.
From the transcript
“people don't just dislike uncertainty they devalue uncertainty any time there's uncertainty we decide to do nothing”
“what's even worse than the worst outcome in a situation is not knowing what that outcome is”
“what we're trying to do is lower that barrier to trial make it easier for them to experience the value of what you're offering”
From the episode
Jonah Berger on How to Change Anyone's Mind