Follow the Money
Decode advice by tracing who gains when you act on it
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 95%
Follow the Money is an incentive audit for advice. Begin with the action being recommended, then identify who receives revenue, equity value, audience growth, or strategic advantage if people follow it. Investigate whether the adviser owns shares, sells a related product, receives referral income, or benefits from rising demand. This does not automatically make the advice false; it changes how much independent evidence the listener should require. Ask why this person is giving this recommendation to this audience now, and compare the claim with a source whose incentives differ. The mechanism shifts attention from the persuasiveness of the speaker to the economic consequences of compliance, making hidden conflicts easier to see without dismissing potentially useful information solely because someone benefits.
Origin
Winnett used recommendations to advertise on social platforms as an example of advice that may benefit an adviser with related shareholdings.
Core principles
- 01Advice is shaped by incentives even when it is free
- 02Ownership can create an undisclosed conflict of interest
- 03A true statement can still be strategically self-serving
- 04Understanding the beneficiary improves judgement
How to run it
- 1
Capture the recommendation
State exactly what the adviser wants the audience to buy, do, believe, or avoid.
Watch out Do not analyse a softened paraphrase when the original call to action is available.
- 2
Map the beneficiaries
List the companies and people whose revenue, valuation, reach, or leverage could increase if the advice spreads.
Pro tip Include indirect beneficiaries, not only the party receiving the immediate payment.
- 3
Check the adviser's ties
Look for ownership, sponsorship, referral fees, employment, partnerships, or products linked to those beneficiaries.
Pro tip Prefer primary disclosures and public records over speculation.
Watch out Do not invent a conflict because an incentive seems plausible.
- 4
Reweight the claim
Keep useful evidence, but require stronger corroboration when the adviser materially benefits from compliance.
Watch out A conflict of interest is not, by itself, proof that the advice is wrong.
- 5
Compare independent views
Seek the same question from sources with different incentives and decide from the combined evidence.
Pro tip Look for disagreement that reveals which assumptions drive the recommendation.
In the wild
An influential business personality repeatedly tells millions of followers to increase advertising on two social platforms. A listener checks whether the adviser owns shares or has commercial interests connected to those companies. Rather than automatically rejecting the advice, the listener compares campaign evidence and independent channel economics before spending.
→ The recommendation is judged alongside the adviser's potential financial upside.
A consultant recommends one analytics platform as the default choice. The buyer discovers a referral arrangement that pays the consultant for every signup. The platform may still be suitable, but the buyer compares two non-affiliate alternatives and demands product-level evidence before choosing.
→ A hidden incentive triggers stronger comparison rather than automatic acceptance or rejection.
Common mistakes
Assuming free means neutral
Advice can increase equity value, audience reach, or future sales without charging the listener directly.
Treating incentives as disproof
A beneficiary can still give accurate advice, so verify the claim rather than dismissing it mechanically.
Speculating without evidence
An incentive audit must verify relationships instead of converting suspicion into a factual allegation.
Is it for you?
Best for
Evaluating recommendations from influencers, experts, vendors, investors, and media personalities.
Not ideal for
Situations where incentives are already fully disclosed and independently governed.
From the transcript
“what you should always do when anyone's giving you any advice is follow the money”
“why am I giving this free advice to people follow the money who”
“who gains from this information”
From the episode
Mike Winnet: Get Demotivated
Mike Winnet